Tim Tebow isn't a one-year wonder
With minor offensive improvements, Tebow can lead the Broncos back to the playoffs
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Early in Super Bowl XI, the Oakland Raiders drove down to the Minnesota Vikings' 7-yard line but stalled there and ended up kicking a 24-yard field goal.
Raiders head coach John Madden was none too happy about the end of the drive. As he noted in, "Hey, Wait A Minute, I Wrote a Book!" Madden told his team, "You got to get the ball in the end zone, you got to get six points, not three."
Quarterback Ken Stabler put his arm around Madden and, knowing just how well the offense was playing, told him, "Don't worry, John, there's plenty more where that came from." Stabler was spot on in his assessment, as the Raiders went on to rout the Vikings 32-14.
That sentiment is exactly the type of feeling that Tim Tebow backers should have about his future prospects.
It might seem hard to fathom such a line of thinking after Tebow's Denver Broncos were on the wrong end of a 45-10 AFC divisional playoff game thrashing against the New England Patriots -- partially because he went 9-for-26 for 136 yards -- but the truth is that a game tape and metric review of Denver's 2011 season indicates Tebow has an extraordinary amount of reachable potential.
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It all begins by recognizing that the Broncos can continue to use the blueprint that got them to this point in the first place: run the ball, throw deep as often as possible and learn to live with Tebow's mistakes (a potential path for success that was noted right after Tebow took over as the starter).
That offensive design worked to the tune of 322.5 yards per game in the 11 regular-season contests Tebow started. That total is only 24.3 yards per game below the league average and is only 54.1 yards per game short of placing in the top 10.
The big reason for this showing is a Denver rushing attack that averaged more rushing yards per game (164.5) than any other team and ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4.8).
That means the increased yardage will likely have to occur in the passing game, but that should be quite attainable given the issues that held the passing game back this year.
Injuries prevented wide receiver Demaryius Thomas from getting into a game until Week 7. Thomas has an incredible amount of talent (Scouts Inc. gave him a 92 rating in its 2010 draft profile) but rehabbing a multitude of physical ailments (broken foot, sprained ankle, concussion, torn Achilles and fractured finger) has slowed the refinement of his route running skills.
It didn't stop him from posting one of the most memorable receptions in NFL playoff history, but if he gets a full offseason worth of work in, there is no telling how good Thomas could be.
Denver could also benefit from substantial improvements out of its other pass-catchers. Holding on to catchable passes would be a great place to begin. According to ESPN's Stats and Info, the Broncos had a 6.6 percent drop rate on on-target passes, highest in the league.
In addition, it should be noted that Eric Decker and Eddie Royal tallied 6.7 and 3.2 yards per attempt (YPA), respectively, on passes thrown by Tebow this year. Decker's total is below average for a wideout and Royal's number is positively abysmal, so upgrading the talent level here should offer an immediate bottom line improvement.
The odds of getting that upgrade are greatly helped by the depth of wide receiver talent that can be found in this year's NFL draft and free-agency crops. The draft has as many as four potential first-round wide receiver prospects and six or seven pass-catchers with second-round potential.
Free agency is also a more than viable avenue since this year's wide receiving crop could include Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, along with a deep group of solid veteran prospects.
Denver's tight end productivity was strong under Tebow (16-for-21 for 244 yards, 11.6 YPA), but it could also benefit from the development of 2011 draft picks Julius Thomas and Virgil Green (four combined receptions for a total of 29 yards this season).
The aforementioned production numbers also occurred in a campaign that included a lockout-truncated offseason, a new Denver coaching staff and Tebow's taking over as quarterback about one-third of the way through the season.
It took time to get him acclimated as the starter and to get the coaching staff to figure out what would work best with him under center, and yet this offense still was only a medium-sized jump away from being quite productive.
It is also worth noting that Tebow's production was offset by a 2.2 percent interception rate that tied for the ninth lowest in the league.
Tebow's low interception total was not a matter of luck, either, as he posted a superb 1.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). To put that number into perspective, a 2 percent BDR is considered the mark of excellence for a vertical passer, and Tebow was well below that level. It is a major reason the Denver offense was able to overcome the significant volume of hurdles it faced this year.
The knee jerk reaction is to think of the Broncos' 2011 season as an amazing one-year confluence of events, but don't sell Tebow and company short.
If Denver's front office handles the 2012 offseason well, we might not look back on this season as one for the ages, but instead see it as the beginning of a highly successful NFL career for Tebow.
With minor offensive improvements, Tebow can lead the Broncos back to the playoffs
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Early in Super Bowl XI, the Oakland Raiders drove down to the Minnesota Vikings' 7-yard line but stalled there and ended up kicking a 24-yard field goal.
Raiders head coach John Madden was none too happy about the end of the drive. As he noted in, "Hey, Wait A Minute, I Wrote a Book!" Madden told his team, "You got to get the ball in the end zone, you got to get six points, not three."
Quarterback Ken Stabler put his arm around Madden and, knowing just how well the offense was playing, told him, "Don't worry, John, there's plenty more where that came from." Stabler was spot on in his assessment, as the Raiders went on to rout the Vikings 32-14.
That sentiment is exactly the type of feeling that Tim Tebow backers should have about his future prospects.
It might seem hard to fathom such a line of thinking after Tebow's Denver Broncos were on the wrong end of a 45-10 AFC divisional playoff game thrashing against the New England Patriots -- partially because he went 9-for-26 for 136 yards -- but the truth is that a game tape and metric review of Denver's 2011 season indicates Tebow has an extraordinary amount of reachable potential.
<offer></offer>
It all begins by recognizing that the Broncos can continue to use the blueprint that got them to this point in the first place: run the ball, throw deep as often as possible and learn to live with Tebow's mistakes (a potential path for success that was noted right after Tebow took over as the starter).
That offensive design worked to the tune of 322.5 yards per game in the 11 regular-season contests Tebow started. That total is only 24.3 yards per game below the league average and is only 54.1 yards per game short of placing in the top 10.
The big reason for this showing is a Denver rushing attack that averaged more rushing yards per game (164.5) than any other team and ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4.8).
That means the increased yardage will likely have to occur in the passing game, but that should be quite attainable given the issues that held the passing game back this year.
Injuries prevented wide receiver Demaryius Thomas from getting into a game until Week 7. Thomas has an incredible amount of talent (Scouts Inc. gave him a 92 rating in its 2010 draft profile) but rehabbing a multitude of physical ailments (broken foot, sprained ankle, concussion, torn Achilles and fractured finger) has slowed the refinement of his route running skills.
It didn't stop him from posting one of the most memorable receptions in NFL playoff history, but if he gets a full offseason worth of work in, there is no telling how good Thomas could be.
Denver could also benefit from substantial improvements out of its other pass-catchers. Holding on to catchable passes would be a great place to begin. According to ESPN's Stats and Info, the Broncos had a 6.6 percent drop rate on on-target passes, highest in the league.
In addition, it should be noted that Eric Decker and Eddie Royal tallied 6.7 and 3.2 yards per attempt (YPA), respectively, on passes thrown by Tebow this year. Decker's total is below average for a wideout and Royal's number is positively abysmal, so upgrading the talent level here should offer an immediate bottom line improvement.
The odds of getting that upgrade are greatly helped by the depth of wide receiver talent that can be found in this year's NFL draft and free-agency crops. The draft has as many as four potential first-round wide receiver prospects and six or seven pass-catchers with second-round potential.
Free agency is also a more than viable avenue since this year's wide receiving crop could include Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, along with a deep group of solid veteran prospects.
Denver's tight end productivity was strong under Tebow (16-for-21 for 244 yards, 11.6 YPA), but it could also benefit from the development of 2011 draft picks Julius Thomas and Virgil Green (four combined receptions for a total of 29 yards this season).
The aforementioned production numbers also occurred in a campaign that included a lockout-truncated offseason, a new Denver coaching staff and Tebow's taking over as quarterback about one-third of the way through the season.
It took time to get him acclimated as the starter and to get the coaching staff to figure out what would work best with him under center, and yet this offense still was only a medium-sized jump away from being quite productive.
It is also worth noting that Tebow's production was offset by a 2.2 percent interception rate that tied for the ninth lowest in the league.
Tebow's low interception total was not a matter of luck, either, as he posted a superb 1.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). To put that number into perspective, a 2 percent BDR is considered the mark of excellence for a vertical passer, and Tebow was well below that level. It is a major reason the Denver offense was able to overcome the significant volume of hurdles it faced this year.
The knee jerk reaction is to think of the Broncos' 2011 season as an amazing one-year confluence of events, but don't sell Tebow and company short.
If Denver's front office handles the 2012 offseason well, we might not look back on this season as one for the ages, but instead see it as the beginning of a highly successful NFL career for Tebow.
